As companies that trade with the West increasingly look to leave China, Japan is in a great position to remain close to the region’s supply chains while benefiting from a skilled workforce, a business-friendly environment, and a close relationship with the U.S. of primary strategic importance. Enhanced Japanese investment in the U.S., meanwhile, can serve as an engine for American and global economic growth.
Others take a more balanced assessment:
It is cold comfort in Tokyo that Japan probably ranks fourth or fifth on Trump’s list of targets for increased tariffs, after China, Mexico, Vietnam, and perhaps Europe. Beyond the direct cost of 10 to 20 percent tariffs on Japanese exports to the United States, tariffs on products from China and Mexico would disrupt Japanese supply chains by hitting their products assembled in those countries. They would also divert Chinese and Mexican exports to other advanced markets, creating pressure on Japan to erect its own protectionist barriers.
Despite being one of the US’s staunchest allies, Japan will have to figure our how to deal with an unpredictable demagogue.